The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced healthy but moderating global passenger traffic results for November 2018.
Total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rose 6.2% compared to November 2017, a slight deceleration from 6.3% growth in October. Capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by 6.8% over the year-ago period, and load factor dipped 0.4 percentage point to 80.0%. It was only the third time in two years that load factor fell on a year-to-year basis.
“Traffic is solid. But there are clear signs that growth is moderating in line with the slowing global economy. We still expect 6% demand growth this year. But trade tensions, protective tariffs and Brexit are all uncertainties that overhang the industry,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
November 2018
(% year-on-year) |
World share1 |
RPK |
ASK |
PLF
(%-pt)2 |
PLF
(level)3 |
Total Market |
100.0% |
6.2% |
6.8% |
-0.4% |
80.0% |
Africa |
2.2% |
2.2% |
1.2% |
0.7% |
69.8% |
Asia Pacific |
33.8% |
6.3% |
7.4% |
-0.8% |
80.2% |
Europe |
26.7% |
8.8% |
8.8% |
0.0% |
81.7% |
Latin America |
5.1% |
6.2% |
6.0% |
0.1% |
82.0% |
Middle East |
9.4% |
2.6% |
5.2% |
-1.8% |
69.4% |
North America |
22.8% |
5.1% |
5.0% |
0.0% |
83.6% |
|
|
1% of industry RPKs in 2017 2Year-on-year change in load factor 3Load factor level |
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International Passenger Markets
November international passenger demand rose 6.6% compared to the year earlier period, up from 6.2% in October. All regions showed growth, led by carriers in Europe. Total capacity climbed 6.7%, and load factor dipped 0.1 percentage point to 78.4%.
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European carriers saw demand increase by 9.0% in November 2018, which was a nine-month high. Given the mixed signs on the economic backdrop in the region it is unclear whether this pace of growth can be sustained. Capacity climbed 9.1% and load factor slipped 0.1 percentage point to 82.1%, the highest load factor among the regions.
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Asia-Pacific airlines’ November traffic climbed 6.0% compared to the year-ago period, up from 5.7% growth in October. Capacity also rose 6.0% and load factor was flat at 79.1%. Growth is underpinned by rising living standards and continuing expansion of options for travelers.
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Middle East carriers had a 2.8% demand increase, which was the lowest among the regions for a third consecutive month. Capacity rose 5.6% and load factor slipped 1.9 percentage points to 69.0%.
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North American airlines’ traffic climbed 6.1%, in November, up from 5.7% in October and well ahead of the five-year average rate of 4.0%. Capacity rose 3.8% and load factor edged up 1.7 percentage points to 80.6%. Demand is supported by comparatively strong momentum in the US economy.
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Latin American airlines’ November traffic climbed 5.8% compared to November 2017, which was an increase from 5.2% growth recorded in October. Despite the increase, growth has slowed on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Capacity rose 6.6% and load factor slipped 0.6 percentage point to 80.6%.
African airlines experienced a 5.7% rise in demand compared to November 2017, down from 6.4% in October but higher than the five-year average of 5.8%. Growth is occurring despite challenges in the continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa. Capacity rose 3.9% and load factor climbed 1.2 percentage points to 68.9%.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic travel demand rose 5.6% in November 2018 compared to the same month in 2017, its slowest pace in 11 months and down from 6.5% in October. All markets except Australia showed growth. Domestic capacity climbed 6.9%, and load factor dropped 1.0 percentage point to 82.8%.
November 2018
(% year-on-year) |
World share1 |
RPK |
ASK |
PLF
(%-pt)2 |
PLF
(level)3 |
Domestic |
35.9% |
5.6% |
6.9% |
-1.0% |
82.8% |
Australia |
0.9% |
-0.7% |
-1.1% |
0.3% |
82.6% |
Brazil |
1.2% |
5.3% |
4.1% |
1.0% |
83.6% |
China P.R |
9.1% |
7.2% |
10.2% |
-2.3% |
82.0% |
India |
1.4% |
13.3% |
19.8% |
-4.8% |
84.4% |
Japan |
1.1% |
1.5% |
3.0% |
-1.1% |
75.6% |
Russian Fed. |
1.4% |
13.8% |
10.9% |
2.1% |
81.6% |
US |
14.3% |
4.9% |
5.9% |
-0.8% |
85.2% |
|
|
1% of industry RPKs in 2017 2Year-on-year change in load factor 3Load factor level
*Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for 30% of global total RPKs and approximately 82% of total domestic RPKs |
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India’s domestic traffic rose 13.3% in November compared to November 2017, marking the 51st consecutive month of double-digit domestic growth. However, it was also the slowest increase in 16 months.
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Brazil’s domestic traffic rose to a four-month high of 5.3% in November, against a fragile economic backdrop.
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